Another year, another Grammy season. 2022 has been a transitional year for pop music’s reigning guard. Albums from Bad Bunny and Harry Styles consistently ruled the year while offerings from Drake, Kendrick Lamar, and Adele were not as commercially or culturally dominant as we may have expected.

This is the first Grammy season where we have advance confirmation that each of the Big 4 General Field categories (Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist) will have ten slots. Predicting Grammy nominations is perhaps the most futile task in music, but, nonetheless, we’re going to give it a shot.

Sure Bets

When it comes to the Grammys, there really isn’t anything that’s a true sure bet. Nevertheless, Renaissance (Beyoncé), 30 (Adele), Harry’s House (Harry Styles), Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers (Kendrick Lamar), and In These Silent Days (Brandi Carlile) are the five album titles I would be least surprised to hear on Nominations Day. Beyoncé and Kendrick are perennial nominees in this category and both albums proved to be commercially and critically well-received (although Kendrick’s enjoyed a more muted response in comparison to Damn and To Pimp a Butterfly). Adele has already won this category for her last two studio albums, and, despite the relatively paltry commercial success of 30, you’d be a fool not to predict her name to show up wherever she submitted her work for consideration. Keep in my mind this is a woman who has not lost a Grammy race since 2010.

Harry Styles secured legitimacy with the Academy by way of his Best Pop Solo Performance triumph in 2021 (“Watermelon Sugar”), and his commercial dominance this year, along with the album’s warm reception, perfectly position him for his first Album of the Year nomination. As for Brandi Carlile, she’s emerged as a Grammy darling in recent years with six appearances in the General Field across the past four years. With submissions across the Americana, pop, and rock fields, Brandi Carlile could very well end up the most nominated artist of the 2023 ceremony.

Strong Shots

Un Verano Sin Ti (Bad Bunny) is far and away the most commercially dominant album of the year. An Album of the Year nomination should be guaranteed, but, unfortunately, the Recording Academy’s bias against non-English music (particularly in the General Field) forces Benito to fight an uphill battle. If nominated, Bad Bunny’s album would become just the third Latin music album performed primarily in a non-English language to be nominated for Album of the Year — and the first since 1965. The Encanto soundtrack was another example of Latin music’s dominance this year. Since the cultural moment of “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” happened at the beginning of the eligibility period, the soundtrack could feel like old news for voters. On the other hand, the Academy has historically been receptive to movie soundtracks in Album of the Year. Saturday Night Fever and The Bodyguard actually won this category in their respective years, and recent soundtracks like Black Panther have also secured nominations.

Both Lizzo and Coldplay earned AOTY nods for their last records, and they’re back in the running again this year for Special and Music of the Spheres, respectively. Although Special secured Lizzo her highest-charting and fastest-selling effort yet, the attention seems to be squarely focused on “About Damn Time” instead of on the album as a whole. Music of the Spheres, on the other hand, also houses a No. 1 single in the BTS-assisted “My Universe,” but outside of that song, there doesn’t seem to be much passion for the album. Then again, that didn’t stop Everyday Life from surprising in this category just two years ago. ABBA, one of the most influential and beloved musical acts of all time, scored their first career Grammy nomination last year with “I Still Have Faith In You,” don’t be surprised if they end up parlaying that support into an AOTY nod for Voyage.

There’s also the question of Red (Taylor’s Version) [Taylor Swift]. In 2013 and 2014, the original Red lost all four of its Grammy nominations including Album of the Year. While the Grammys have deemed the 2021 re-recording eligible to compete at this year’s ceremony, who knows what they’ll do with it? There isn’t any precedent for re-recorded albums competing in the General Field, they just awarded her a third AOTY trophy two years ago, and the focus is now on her Midnights album and "All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” as opposed to the re-recording in its entirety. It could really go either way here.

Sleeper Picks

On the R&B side of things Gemini Rights (Steve Lacy), Watch the Sun (PJ Morton), and Wasteland (Brent Faiyaz) could all make the Final 10. Steve Lacy is currently having a rock star moment with the success of “Bad Habit” and the frenzy of his tour, Brent Faiyaz’s commercial success this year was a big win for indie artists, and PJ Morton is a four-time Grammy winner who is greatly respected by his peers.

When it comes to country music, Palomino (Miranda Lambert), Humble Quest (Maren Morris), and American Heartbreak (Zach Bryan) all have strong shots. Neither Miranda nor Maren have been nominated in the General Field for their country music, but strong critical reception and memorable hits in “If I Was A Cowboy” and “Circles Around This Town” could help their chances. Zach Bryan will likely siphon support from the Americana and country fields and the sleeper success of his acclaimed major-label debut and its breakout single “Something in the Orange” is the kind of story and image that the Academy has traditionally embraced.

As for hip-hop, It’s Almost Dry (Pusha T) and I Never Liked You (Future) are the strongest shots for the genre to land a contender outside of Kendrick. Also, keep an eye out for Good Morning Gorgeous (Mary J. Blige). When it comes to pop stars, = (Ed Sheeran), Motomami (ROSALÍA), Optimist (FINNEAS), and Dance Fever (Florence + the Machine) all have fighting chances. Ed already got a Song of the Year (“Bad Habits”) nomination out of this album last year, so there’s still some support for him. Rosalía won a Grammy for her last record and the general momentum of Latin music will only help her case this year — it’s also the most acclaimed album of the year. Finneas has won countless Grammys for his work with his sister (Billie Eilish), and Optimist gives the Academy a chance to laud him for his own work. Finally, Florence & Co. have consistently delivered acclaimed albums for over a decade now and they still have yet to win a Grammy. This could be the year for them, and it also could play out the opposite way. Who knows!

Final Predictions

30 (Adele)

Renaissance (Beyoncé)

Harry’s House (Harry Styles)

Special (Lizzo)

Un Verano Sin Ti (Bad Bunny)

Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers (Kendrick Lamar)

In These Silent Days (Brandi Carlile)

American Heartbreak (Zach Bryan)

= (Ed Sheeran)

Watch the Sun (PJ Morton)

ALT: Music of the Spheres (Coldplay) OR Red (Taylor’s Version) [Taylor Swift]